Polls indicate a surge for the right across the continent in next month’s ballots, but the centrists are still likely to hold sway in parliament

Polls indicate a surge for the right across the continent in next month’s ballots but the centrists are still likely to hold sway in parliament

Far-right gains in next month’s European elections will be hard, if not impossible, to parlay into more power in parliament, experts say, but they could boost nationalist parties in EU capitals – with potentially greater consequences.

Polling suggests far-right and hardline conservative parties could finish first in nine EU states, including Austria, France and the Netherlands, in the polls between 6 and 9 June, and second or third in another nine, including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.

The predicted rise of the far- right Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the conservative-nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) has sparked speculation about a “sharp right turn” in the European parliament, potentially jeopardising key EU projects such as the green deal.

ID, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ) and Vlaams Belang in Belgium, are on track to be the big winners – from 59 MEPs to perhaps 85.

  • dependencyinjection@discuss.tchncs.deEnglish
    21·
    6 months ago

    Ignoring your second sentence as it detracts from anything you said afterwards.

    I’ll like to focus on the first point.

    If crimes are being committed disproportionately by expats, we should look at the economic situation of those committing crimes vs other demographics, as there is a large crossover.

    So that leads us to the question, is it expats commuting more crime or is it poor people committing more crime as expats are generally also in the poorest section of a society.

    Correlation isn’t causation.

    Ice cream sales align very well with drownings. Does this mean ice cream makes people drown or more people eat ice cream on hot days and they also go in water more in hot days.

    Edit: To take your second point. Anecdotally from the UK, it’s the people born here that are more likely to be claiming benefits and having loads of children, not the expats coming here. They actually work very hard. The Asian community is always out feeding the homeless and the first group out cleaning the streets of Manchester after riots a few years ago and after the Scot’s came down for football and tore up the city. They were the first ones out after the Manchester bombing bringing food and stuff for emergency responders.

    To your third point. Sure we have communities popping up which are predominantly the same race of people, but wouldn’t you want to live in a place with people you have more in common with, integration takes time.

    The only community that I rarely see doing anything for the community and / or integrating is the Jewish community (nothing against them, just an observation).

    • Iceblade@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1·
      6 months ago

      If crimes are being committed disproportionately by expats, we should look at the economic situation of those committing crimes vs other demographics, as there is a large crossover.

      So that leads us to the question, is it expats commuting more crime or is it poor people committing more crime as expats are generally also in the poorest section of a society.

      Sweden has amongst the most generous welfare systems in Europe and the world. If higher crime rates amongst migrants was caused by economic poverty, Sweden should have lower crime rates in these groups than other countries. However, this does not seem to be the case.