Useful in the way that it increases emissions and hopefully leads to our demise because that’s what we deserve for this stupid technology.
Surely this is better than the crypto/NFT tech fad. At least there is some output from the generative AI that could be beneficial to the whole of humankind rather than lining a few people’s pockets?
Unfortunately crypto is still somehow a thing. There is a couple year old bitcoin mining facility in my small town that brags about consuming 400MW of power to operate and they are solely owned by a Chinese company.
I recently noticed a number of bitcoin ATMs that have cropped up where I live - mostly at gas stations and the like. I am a little concerned by it.
Do you really think that paper money covered in colonizers and other slavermasters is going to last forever?
Found the diamond hands.
Crypto currencies are still backed by and dependent on those same currencies. And their value is incredibly unstable, making them largely useless except as a speculative investment for stock market daytraders. BitCoin may as well be Doge Coin or Bored Ape NFTs as far as the common person is concerned.
I hope your coins haven’t seen a 90%+ drop in value in the past 4 years like the vast majority have.
Cryptos obviously have serious issues, but so do fiat currencies. In fact all implementations of money have one problem or another. It’s almost like it’s a difficult thing to get right and that maybe it was a bad idea in the first place.
lol
Forever? No, of course not.
But paper currency is backed by a nation state, so I’m betting it’ll be around a bit longer then a purely digital asset without the backing of a nation, and driven entirely by speculation.
I’m not even anti-crypto. It was novel idea when it was actually used entirely as a currency, but that hasn’t been true for quite some time.
Bullets and toilet paper will be more usable currency than crypto if paper falls out of favor.
I hope this is sarcasm.
It takes living with a broken system to understand the fix for it. There are millions of people who have been saved by Bitcoin and the freedom that it brings, they are just mainly in the 2nd and 3rd worlds, so to many people they basically don’t exist.
That’s great and all but doesn’t sound like a valid excuse for the excessive amount of energy it consumes. It’s also hard for me to imagine 3rd world places that somehow flourish because of a currency that needs the Internet to exist.
I just looked it up, it looks like it is the a difference of 35% to 80% in the developed world.
Imagine this, you are forced to hold your wealth in corrupt government run banks. They often print tons of it for themselves, criminals are printing it, the government can seize it from anyone they want. You can try to store it at home, yourself, or you can give it to the banks. Now there is a third option, store it as Bitcoin. No need for risking it under your bed or with the corrupt banker politicians, and on top of those be victims to their inflation. Sure, your bank probably doesn’t often seize your money, and your currency probably isn’t rapidly devaluing even compared to the dollar, but if it was then you would probably think the energy is worth it.
But crypto also suffers from crashes and being devalued and if you’re buying Bitcoin with your hard earned dollar that is worth less and less then you are ultimately buying less and less Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin still needs all of the other currency to function as a middle man makes it vulnerable to the same risks. Maybe it helps people in niche situations but I’m sure we’ll all be thinking it’s worth it when those same struggling places are the hardest hit by climate change. At least they’ll have a bunch of digital currency propped up by fiat currency.
Climate change is a separate issue.
It would be fantastic if people being abused by corrupt politicians and currencies was niche! It’s not though, there are hundreds of millions of people struggling with it. Billions depending on how you count it. It is a disease of the 1st world to be unable to accept that not everyone has the same privileges they enjoy. Human beings are literally starving to death and dying decades early due to poverty, Bitcoin is literally keeping them alive. Spoiled brats want them to die because they saw a headline that tells them to parrot that Bitcoin is bad. Where is your outrage over Christmas lights? How about video games? These things don’t save lives and transform existences like safe money does.
Nearly everyone who has bought Bitcoin and held are up, it has outperformed every stock, every currency, every investment on large enough time scales. Give me a volatile currency that goes up in value over volatile currencies that utterly collapse. Where is the outrage over the lira? Or any other currency that is down to 5% of itself that people are “supposed” to hold according to you?
There is a very good reason that you don’t have answers to these. It is because all you know on the issue is that you are not supposed to look to deeply and you’re supposed to mindlessly repeat that Bitcoin is bad without having any idea why. You are allowed to research, you are allowed to make your own decisions, you are allowed to talk to people in the 2nd and 3ed worlds. You are allowed to travel to these places and talk to people. Nobody forces you to repeat their BS, you just have to decide that you want to learn and then put in some effort.
I’m crypto neutral.
But it’s really strange how anti-crypto ideologues don’t understand that the system of states printing money is literally destroying the planet. They can’t see the value of a free, fair, decentralized, automatable, accounting systems?
Somehow delusional chatbots wasting energy and resources are more worthwhile?
Printing currency isn’t destroying the planet…the current economic system is doing that, which is the same economic system that birthed crypto.
Governments issuing currency goes back to a time long before our current consumption at all cost economic system was a thing.
I’m fine doing away with physical dollars printed on paper and coins but crypto seems to solve none of the problems that we have with a fiat currency but instead continues to consume unnecessary amounts of energy while being driven by rich investors that would love nothing more than to spend and earn money in an untraceable way.
While the consumption for AI train can be large, there are arguments to be made for its net effect in the long run.
The article’s last section gives a few examples that are interesting to me from an environmental perspective. Using smaller problem-specific models can have a large effect in reducing AI emissions, since their relation to model size is not linear. AI assistance can indeed increase worker productivity, which does not necessarily decrease emissions but we have to keep in mind that our bodies are pretty inefficient meat bags. Last but not least, AI literacy can lead to better legislation and regulation.
The argument that our bodies are inefficient meat bags doesn’t make sense. AI isn’t replacing the inefficient meat bag unless I’m unaware of an AI killing people off and so far I’ve yet to see AI make any meaningful dent in overall emissions or research. A chatgpt query can use 10x more power than a regular Google search and there is no chance the result is 10x more useful. AI feels more like it’s adding to the enshittification of the internet and because of its energy use the enshittification of our planet. IMO if these companies can’t afford to build renewables to support their use then they can fuck off.
Using smaller problem-specific models can have a large effect in reducing AI emissions
Sure, if you consider anything at all to be “AI”. I’m pretty sure my spellchecker is relatively efficient.
AI literacy can lead to better legislation and regulation.
What do I need to read about my spellchecker? What legislation and regulation does it need?
Theoretically we could slow down training and coast on fine-tuning existing models. Once the AI’s trained they don’t take that much energy to run.
Everyone was racing towards “bigger is better” because it worked up to GPT4, but word on the street is that raw training is giving diminishing returns so the massive spending on compute is just a waste now.
It’s a bit more complicated than that.
New models are sometimes targeting architecture improvements instead of pure size increases. Any truly new model still needs training time, it’s just that the training time isn’t going up as much as it used to. This means that open weights and open source models can start to catch up to large proprietary models like ChatGPT.
From my understanding GPT 4 is still a huge model and the best performing. The other models are starting to get close though, and can already exceed GPT 3.5 Turbo which was the previous standard to beat and is still what a lot of free chatbots are using. Some of these models are still absolutely huge though, even if not quite as big as GPT 4. For example Goliath is 120 billion parameters. Still pretty chonky and intensive to run even if it’s not quite GPT 4 sized. Not that anyone actually knows how big GPT 4 is. Word on the street is it’s a MoE model like Mixtral which run faster than a normal model for their size, but again no one outside Open AI actually can say with certainty.
You generally find that Open AI models are larger and slower. Wheras the other models focus more on giving the best performance at a given size as training and using huge models is much more demanding. So far the larger Open AI models have done better, but this could change as open source models see a faster improvement in the techniques they use. You could say open weights models rely on cunning architectures and fine tuning versus Open AI uses brute strength.
Is it me or is there something very facile and dull about Gartner charts? Thinking especially about the “””magic””” quadrants one (wow, you ranked competitors in some area along TWO axes!), but even this chart feels like such a mundane observation that it seems like frankly undeserved advertising for Gartner, again, given how little it actually says.
And it isn’t even true in many cases. For example the internet with the dotcom bubble. It actually became much bigger and important than anyone anticipated in the 90s.
The graph for VR would also be quite interesting, given how many hype cycles it has had over the decades.
fascinating. Thank you.
Where are we on this? No way we’re at the bottom of the trough yet.
Going down to disillusionment two months ago.
Well, how disappointed are you feeling, personally?
Do you see your negative opinions of generative AI becoming more intense, or deeper within the next 6-12 months, or have they hit a plateau of sustained disappointment mediated by the prior 6-12 months?
To be fair, it is useful in some regards.
I’m not a huge fan of Amazon, but last time I had an issue with a parcel it was sorted out insanely fast by the AI assistant on the website.
Within literally 2 minutes I’d had a refund confirmed. No waiting for people to eventually pick up the phone after 40 minutes. No misunderstanding or annoying questions. The moment I pressed send on my message it instantly started formulating a reply.
The truncated version went:
“Hey I meant to get [x] delivery, but it hasn’t arrived. Can I get a refund?”
“Sure, your money will go back into [y] account in a few days. If the parcel turns up in the meantime, you can send it back by dropping it off at [z]”
Done. Absolutely painless.
How is a chatbot here better, faster, or more accurate than just a “return this” button on a web page? Chat bots like that take 10x the programming effort and actively make the user experience worse.
Presumably there could be nuance to the situation that the chat bot is able to convey?
But that nuance is probably limited to a paragraph or two of text. There’s nothing the chatbot knows about the returns process at a specific company that isn’t contained in that paragraph. The question is just whether that paragraph is shown directly to the user, or if it’s filtered through an LLM first. The only thing I can think of is that chatbot might be able to rephrase things for confused users and help stop users from ignoring the instructions and going straight to human support.
Like a comment field on a web form?
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I like using it to assist me when I am coding.
Do you feel like elaborating any? I’d love to find more uses. So far I’ve mostly found it useful in areas where I’m very unfamiliar. Like I do very little web front end, so when I need to, the option paralysis is gnarly. I’ve found things like Perplexity helpful to allow me to select an approach and get moving quickly. I can spend hours agonizing over those kinds of decisions otherwise, and it’s really poorly spent time.
I’ve also found it useful when trying to answer questions about best practices or comparing approaches. It sorta does the reading and summarizes the points (with links to source material), pretty perfect use case.
So both of those are essentially “interactive text summarization” use cases - my third is as a syntax helper, again in things I don’t work with often. If I’m having a brain fart and just can’t quite remember the ternary operator syntax in that one language I never use…etc. That one’s a bit less impactful but can still be faster than manually inspecting docs, especially if the docs are bad or hard to use.
With that said I use these things less than once a week on average. Possible that’s just down to my own pre-existing habits more than anything else though.
An example I did today was adjusting the existing email functionality of the application I am working on to use handlebars templates. I was able to reformat the existing html stored as variables into the templates, then adjust their helper functions used to distribute the emails to work with handlebars rather than the previous system all in one fell swoop. I could have done it by hand, but it is repetitive work.
I also use it a lot when troubleshooting issues, such as suggesting how to solve error messages when I am having trouble understanding them. Just pasing the error into the chat has gotten me unstuck too many times to count.
It can also be super helpful when trying to get different versions of the packages installed in a code base to line up correctly, which can be absolutely brutal for me when switching between multiple projects.
Asking specific little questions that may take up the of a coworker or the Sr dev lets me understand the specifics of what I am looking at super quickly without wasting peoples time. I work mainly with existing code, so it is really helpful for breaking down other peoples junk if I am having trouble following.
Cool thanks! I haven’t tried it for troubleshooting, I’ll give that a go when I next need it.
Are you using one integrated into your IDE? Or just standalone in a web browser? That’s probably what I ought to try next (the IDE end of things). I saw an acquaintance using PyCharm’s integrated assistant to auto gen commit messages, that looked cool. Not exactly game changing of course.
I am using the built-in copilot on Vs code + the copilot chat app.
Are you finding that the assistance it provides has gotten worse over time? When I first started using it, it was quite helpful the majority of the time. In truth, it’s still pretty decent with autocomplete, just less consistently good than before. However the chat help has truly gone into decline. The amount of unfounded statements it returns is terrible.
And the latest issue is that I’ve started getting responses where it starts to show me an answer, but then hides the response and gives me an error that the response was filtered by Responsible AI.
Glad I’m not directly paying for it.
So how “intelligent” do you think the amazon returns bot is? As smart as a choose-your-own-adventure book, or a gerbil, or a human or beyond? Has it given you any useful life advice or anything?
Doesn’t need to be “intelligent”, it needs to be fit for purpose, and it clearly is.
The closest comparison you made was to the cyoa book, but that’s only for the part where it gives me options. It has to have the “intelligence” to decipher what I’m asking it and then give me the options.
The fact it can do that faster and more efficiently than a human is exactly what I’d expect from it. Things don’t have to be groundbreaking to be useful.
Smarter than Zork, worse than a human. Faster response times than humans though.
We should’ve known this fact, when we still have those input prompt voice operators that still can’t for the life of it, understand some of the shit we tell it. That’s the direction I saw this whole AI thing going and had a hunch that it was going to plummet because the big new shiny tech isn’t all that it was cracked up to be.
To call it ‘ending’ though is a stretch. No, it’ll be improved in time and it’ll come back when it’s more efficient. We’re only seeing the fundamental failures of expectancy vs reality in the current state. It’s too early to truly call it.
It’s on the falling edge of the hype curve. It’s quite expected, and you’re right about where it’s headed. It can’t do everything people want/expect but it can do some things really well. It’ll find its niche and people will continue to refine it and find new uses, but it’ll never be the threat/boon folks have been expecting.
People are using it for things it’s not good at thinking it’ll get better. And it has to an extent. It is technically very capable of writing prose or drawing pictures, but it lacks any semblance of artistry and it always will. I’ve seen trained elephants paint pictures, but they are interesting for the novelty, not for their expression. AI could be the impetus for more people to notice art and what makes good art special.
That’s a good comparison.
Note though that input prompt voices have not revolutionized anything. I personally avoid them as much as possible.
To call it ‘ending’ though is a stretch.
That’s only the title and it is only referring to the hype ending, not development of the technology:
Eighteen months later, generative AI is not transforming business. Many projects using the technology are being cancelled, such as an attempt by McDonald’s to automate drive-through ordering which went viral on TikTok after producing comical failures. Government efforts to make systems to summarise public submissions and calculate welfare entitlements have met the same fate.
If you read the article you’ll find the author is not claiming we have universally reached the end of AI or its hype cycle yet:
A Gartner report published in June listed most generative AI technologies as either at the peak of inflated expectations or still going upward.
There’s a whole section of the article dedicated to answering why this is the case, too. I recommended you read the article, as you seem to have misinterpreted it based on the title.
We should be using AI to pump the web with nonsense content that later AI will be trained on as an act of sabotage. I understand this is happening organically; that’s great and will make it impossible to just filter out AI content and still get the amount of data they need.
That sounds like dumping trash in the oceans so ships can’t get through the trash islands easily anymore and become unable to transport more trashy goods. Kinda missing the forest for the trees here.
My shitposting will make AI dumber all on its own; feedback loop not required.
Alternatively, and possibly almost as useful, companies will end up training their AI to detect AI content so that they don’t train on AI content. Which would in turn would give everyone a tool to filter out AI content. Personally, I really like the apps that poison images when they’re uploaded to the internet.
Bold of you to assume companies will release their AI detection tools
Force the AI folks to dev accurate AI detection tools to screen their input
So if I were to get this straight, the entire logic is that due to big hype, it fits the pattern or other techs becoming useful… that’s sooo not a guarantee, so many big hype stuff have died.
NFTs anyone?
Meanwhile, in the real world, generative A.I. continues to improve at an exponential rate.
The improvement is not exponential. It’s just slowly getting better.
It’s following a breakthrough then slow refinement curve. Not an exponential one. Although there will certainly be breakthroughs in the future, followed by more “refinement” periods.
Current iterations of ChatGPT for example, aren’t otherworldly better than what we had 1-2 years ago.
Generative AI includes multi-modal, audio, video, code, etc. From where I’m sitting it’s still exponential.
Third, we see a strong focus on providing AI literacy training and educating the workforce on how AI works, its potentials and limitations, and best practices for ethical AI use. We are likely to have to learn (and re-learn) how to use different AI technologies for years to come.
Useful?!? This is a total waste of time, energy, and resources for worthless chatbots.
I use it all the time at work, generative ai is very useful. I don’t know vba coding but I was able to automate all my excel reports by using chatgpt to write me vba code to automate everything. I know sql and I’m a novice at it. Chatgpt can fix all the areas in weak at in SQL. I end up asking it about APIs and was able to integrate another source of data giving everyone in my department new and better reporting.
There are a lot of limitations and you have to ask it to fix a lot of the errors it creates but it’s very helpful for someone like me who doesn’t know programming but it can enable me to use programming to be more efficient.
