[Ottawa – August 21, 2024] The Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been i…
People have been treating a Conservative majority as basically foretold for the last while, but the election is still over a year out. Personally, I’ve been much more reserved with my feelings about our current political trajectory. Recent events from south of the border should make it very clear that even a few months is forever in politics. We’re not in what I would consider an ideal position, but it’s much too early to assume the sky is going to fall.
Polling is essentially meaningless until an election is called, and given none of the parties are making policy promises at this point it is more of a state of sentiment about the current government.
I really hope that whoever gets elected this next election that they only get a minority so there is at least some chance of ensuring they don’t do anything too extreme.
Trudeau is our Biden. He’s an old news incumbentband he’s got to go if we want any chance of beating snide Skippy. Trudeau cannot possibly have missed the way Biden bowed out and made way for new blood, and how that has energized the left and moved the needle with swing voters.
The same thing could happen with the NDP, if Singh would bow out. Of course, if they both pull a Biden, it might split the vote when worse. So, I guess we’d better hope that the NDP ditches Singh, but that Trudeau, unable to bear the thought of living in an empty house without Sophie and the kids, desperately clings to power like a madman.
People have been treating a Conservative majority as basically foretold for the last while, but the election is still over a year out. Personally, I’ve been much more reserved with my feelings about our current political trajectory. Recent events from south of the border should make it very clear that even a few months is forever in politics. We’re not in what I would consider an ideal position, but it’s much too early to assume the sky is going to fall.
Polling is essentially meaningless until an election is called, and given none of the parties are making policy promises at this point it is more of a state of sentiment about the current government.
I really hope that whoever gets elected this next election that they only get a minority so there is at least some chance of ensuring they don’t do anything too extreme.
That’s not entirely true
Polls still predict how people will behave, but there is a lot of room for events to happen.
If you properly weight your polls with probability of outcomes, it’s useful. That’s not easy though.
Trudeau is our Biden. He’s an old news incumbentband he’s got to go if we want any chance of beating snide Skippy. Trudeau cannot possibly have missed the way Biden bowed out and made way for new blood, and how that has energized the left and moved the needle with swing voters.
The same thing could happen with the NDP, if Singh would bow out. Of course, if they both pull a Biden, it might split the vote when worse. So, I guess we’d better hope that the NDP ditches Singh, but that Trudeau, unable to bear the thought of living in an empty house without Sophie and the kids, desperately clings to power like a madman.