I can’t imagine a competent campaign manager or DNC staffer who would let this happen.
Sure, the speech as presented isn’t bad (though doesn’t really help Harris) the nightmare scenario is the speaker deviates (in the name of Palestine/“I thought it was too important to be quiet” etc) and the DNC has to play them off. Imagine how bad that coverage and fallout would be.
The Uncommited Movement endorses Harris in the speech. So it would actually be good for Harris. In fact going off script would be bad for the Uncommitted Movement and Palestinians by the logic provided in their speech.
But in this pain, I’ve also witnessed something profound—a beautiful, multifaith, multiracial, and multigenerational coalition rising from despair within our Democratic Party. For 320 days, we’ve stood together, demanding to enforce our laws on friend and foe alike to reach a ceasefire, end the killing of Palestinians, free all the Israeli and Palestinian hostages, and to begin the difficult work of building a path to collective peace and safety. That’s why we are here—members of this Democratic Party committed to equal rights and dignity for all. What we do here echoes around the world.
The actual Uncommitted Movement sees themselves as an integral part of the Democratic Party. They correctly assert that the Democratic Party is fighting for everyone and that everyone includes the Palestinians. Anyone who can write this speech should know that it is of the utmost importance to stay on script.
By not airing the speech the DNC is leaving Israel’s genocide in the Gaza strip to be a wedge issue for bad actors. It falls to the rest of us to assert that this is not the case. There is no other secret speech that needs to be said. Free Palestine and Vote Blue No Matter Who are not statements that are at odds in the general election.
Yes, the speech as given is fine (again, not super helpful but not awful) but the risk is the speaker deviates from a speech submitted for DNC approval etc.
Given the protestors outside have signs accusing Democrats of funding genocide it just seems like an unnecessary risk.
As for giving a wedge issue for bad actors, that’ll happen regardless of whether one speaker says nice things at the DNC.
In sum, negligible upside with a significant risk this is not a move I, or any rational campaign staffer, would make.
There is no serious risk of a deviation in giving the speech. This is isn’t a speech by protesters holding ‘Killer Kamala’ signs. This is the speech from the Uncommitted Movement. The speaker is a Democrat state representative herself. The Uncommitted Movement made their point in the Democratic Party’s primary election and now are supporting the Democratic ticket in the general election.
An endorsement by a major pro-Palestinian movement in the US would be a huge upside to Kamala Harris’ campaign. Again, not just any speaker saying nice things. A Palestinian woman who is a Democrat and state representative. Who, on behalf of a large pro-Palestinian movement, says things that would turn this issue around for the Democrats.
The real downside by not airing the speech is giving more ammo to bad actors and psyops on social media platforms. Who try to make supporting Palestinians and Democrats mutually exclusive. That kind of misinformation dominating the discourse and depressing voter turnout would negatively impact the Democratic ticket.
The rational analysis is in favor of letting this speech air. I am not privy to the DNC’s thought process. What could be happening is self-sabotage based on unfounded fear. Fear that is motivated by a misunderstanding of who the Uncommitted Movement is. Anyone protesting to prevent Kamala from winning the general election is either a bad actor or part of a psyop, not the Uncommitted Movement.
This is is a missed opportunity for the Democrats. However, it need not be a missed opportunity for us. Whenever someone tries to hit Kamala with this topic as a wedge issue, show them this speech. The Uncommitted Movement is with Kamala Harris.
As far as I can tell, the uncommitted movement hasn’t made any official statements supporting Harris or anything to that effect on their website.
So the DNC has to trust this group’s policy is going to be announced by this speaker at the DNC with zero mechanisms to make sure things go as planned.
Outside of a few goofs, most voters understand the Dems will be better for Palestine than trump. Even if the uncommitted movement made a serious pledge, a lot of the genocide Joe crowd would just call them party hacks or whatever. At the same time, frankly, among the people most likely to actually vote (those 65+) support is incredibly favourable to Israel, even during this conflict.
Again, negligible possible gains, huge risk, avoiding this is a no brainer.
(Unsure how old you are but you might remember the kerfuffle over Bernie in 2016 or the ridicule after Eastwood’s bizzare empty chair speech. A successful convention is one that avoids those embarrassing moments at all costs.)
I don’t imagine we’re going to agree on this but I appreciate your input.
As far as I can tell, the uncommitted movement hasn’t made any official statements supporting Harris or anything to that effect on their website.
The Uncommitted Movement do not need to indirectly communicate with the DNC via their website. They requested to speak at the DNC and eventually got a no. If the DNC wanted additional assurances they could have just asked. The DNC didn’t even want to look at the speech. They analyzed fewer facts than we are now.
So the DNC has to trust this group’s policy is going to be announced by this speaker at the DNC with zero mechanisms to make sure things go as planned.
The same mechanisms as anybody the DNC works with. Again, the speaker is a Democrat. Specifically a Democrat state representative in Georgia. The DNC should be able to trust this person.
Outside of a few goofs, most voters understand the Dems will be better for Palestine than trump.
Those goofs are people whose votes the Democrats will need to win the election in November. This speech was an easy way to win them over.
Even if the uncommitted movement made a serious pledge, a lot of the genocide Joe crowd would just call them party hacks or whatever.
Which the Uncommitted Movement did. They released the speech to Mother Jones. We need to tell people that the Uncommited Movement has done this.
At the same time, frankly, among the people most likely to actually vote (those 65+) support is incredibly favourable to Israel, even during this conflict.
The Democrats need high voter turnout to win. Swing state elections this year could be determined by younger, unlikely voters. Many younger, unlikely voters care about Palestine. So it is critical they know the Democratic Party’s ticket is in the interest of Palestine.
(Unsure how old you are but you might remember the kerfuffle over Bernie in 2016 or the ridicule after Eastwood’s bizzare empty chair speech. A successful convention is one that avoids those embarrassing moments at all costs.)
Those were 8 and 12 years ago respectively. So recent. The kerfuffle you are referring to is a major source of grievance for the kind of people who would otherwise support the current Democratic Party’s ticket.
Your argument misses that these examples are in fact the opposite problems. The DNC went out of their way to put down Bernie’s campaign. Where as the RNC were completely blindsided by Clint Eastwood’s improv performance. The RNC couldn’t be bothered to get Clint Eastwood to commit to an agreed on speech.
The DNC again went out of their way to block a speech that could have benefited them and is yet another unforced error from Democrats. Rather than allowing the DNC mistake cost the Democrats another election we should inform people what an actual pro-Palestinian movement thinks.
Again, negligible possible gains, huge risk, avoiding this is a no brainer.
It is a no brainer, but not in the way your argument is describing it. No matter how many times your argument minimizes the benefits of and invents risks for this speech for Democrats doesn’t make it true. The DNC’s analysis is a moot point anyway. We can see that this speech is a useful tool against people wrongly using the topic as a wedge issue. We should use the speech.
I don’t imagine we’re going to agree on this but I appreciate your input.
Your argument’s analysis isn’t based on the available facts. Your argument invents a ‘reasonable’ DNC response when we are in the dark about the actual reasoning. Why imagine a world where the DNC did the right thing when we can simply do the right thing for them. Show people the speech.
It really seems like you are asserting things without regard for evidence or observable reality. You can’t just say “there’s no risk of deviating from the speech.” That’s a very bold assertion made entirely without evidence!
The Uncommitted Movement do not need to indirectly communicate with the DNC via their website.
Yes, they kind of do. That’s the thing. It is very strange to have a “movement” say they are going to make a significant strategic decision but only if they are able to do it live and on primetime. That works for WWE and reality television but not politics. And it is a strategic switch that seems to only exist in this one copy of a speech, not on the website or anything where you would expect to see a significant policy switch.
The same mechanisms as anybody the DNC works with.
Yes, except those speakers have all been part of groups that are enthusiastically and vocally for Harris.
Again, you have this group that have been pretty anti-establishment then promising they are going to radically shift gears and are now going to be vocal for Harris? Seems off.
The Democrats need high voter turnout to win. Swing state elections this year could be determined by younger, unlikely voters. Many younger, unlikely voters care about Palestine. So it is critical they know the Democratic Party’s ticket is in the interest of Palestine.
In both, you can see that Harris leads or is close with 65+ (a group that is twice the size of the younger voters and votes reliably.)
Nate Silver also broke down the math pretty well in an aptly titled post “Your friends are not a representative sample of public opinion”
Let’s do some math here. About 51 percent of the country voted for Biden in 2020. Of that 51 percent, 14 percent say they don’t plan to vote for Biden this time in the head-to-head matchup against Trump. Of those, 13 percent list Gaza or something related as their top issue. And of that 13 percent, 49 percent4 are more sympathetic to Palestine than to Israel (and only 17 percent are more sympathetic to Israel; the rest are in the both/neither camp). So we get:
.51 * .14 * .13 * .49 = .005
That is, 0.5 percent of the American electorate are 2020 Biden voters who say they’ll withdraw their vote from Biden because he’s too far to their right on Israel.
Like I said, huge risk with marginal upside. Even if the odds are against it, the outcome could be disastrous. Think about Russian Roulette with a 1/100 chance, sure the odds are in your favour but would you play that game for a nickel?
It really seems like you are asserting things without regard for evidence or observable reality. You can’t just say “there’s no risk of deviating from the speech.” That’s a very bold assertion made entirely without evidence!
No, it’s not. Again, she is an elected Democrat. If the DNC can’t trust their own elected officials then they can’t trust anyone. Your argument is trying to make it sound like a random protester would be giving the speech.
And it is a strategic switch that seems to only exist in this one copy of a speech, not on the website or anything where you would expect to see a significant policy switch.
Their website is for general information and donations. Not for sending smoke signals to the DNC. They can communicate over the phone or by email. The Uncommitted Movement do not have to signal anything publicly on their donation page for the DNC to take them seriously.
Again, you have this group that have been pretty anti-establishment then promising they are going to radically shift gears and are now going to be vocal for Harris? Seems off.
The Uncommited part in Uncommitted Movement referrers to the uncommitted option on certain state’s primary ballots for the Democratic Party. The intention of the movement was always to contest Biden during the primary election and not the general election. There is no switching gears, that was always the plan.
All of the above is a moot point anyway. The DNC is over. They did not allow the speech to be given by anyone.
Those likely voters are voting. It will come down to unlikely voters. This the margin of victory in 2020.
Many of the races in battle ground states came down to less than a million votes. .5% of 340 million people is 1.7 million people. In other words, enough people to make the Democrats lose critical swing states.
Rather than misleading people about reality and blowing off voters in an election where every vote counts, consider telling them the truth instead. The Uncommitted Movement supports Kamala Harris. The speech is evidence of that. Arguments trying to make this a wedge issue against the Democrats are demonstrably false. The Democratic Party’s ticket is good for the Palestinian people, don’t let any misinformation about that go unchallenged.
I’m talking about arguments like this one in this comment section:
Really like the implication people are making here that the DNC clearly does not care about the amount of constituents in the uncommitted group because they think enough voters will vote against Trump.
ie we get genocide either way
yeah I’m so excited to vote this November…
Trump is going to let all of the Palestinians be killed. Arguments in support of the Palestinian people should be trying to energize people to vote for Kamala and to defeat Trump this November. However the rhetoric in the above argument is designed to de-energize voters. We can argue against that rhetoric with facts like this speech.
It just seems wild to put your entire argument as “there is no way a state member of Congress who has been in office for all of 20 months would go off script in support of a cause which she feels is super important.” Especially to heartily endorse Kamala, a position which the uncommitted movement has (as far as I can tell) kept fairly quiet, not even bothering to publish on their website. (Yes, we have this super important message about the election but it’s not on us to present that message anywhere if we don’t get our way with a speaker!"
Even if I think the odds are the script would go fine, it’s a silly risk and would be an insane unforced error.
Wanting something to be true is not the same as it being true.
I can’t imagine a competent campaign manager or DNC staffer who would let this happen.
Sure, the speech as presented isn’t bad (though doesn’t really help Harris) the nightmare scenario is the speaker deviates (in the name of Palestine/“I thought it was too important to be quiet” etc) and the DNC has to play them off. Imagine how bad that coverage and fallout would be.
Edit: a word
The Uncommited Movement endorses Harris in the speech. So it would actually be good for Harris. In fact going off script would be bad for the Uncommitted Movement and Palestinians by the logic provided in their speech.
The actual Uncommitted Movement sees themselves as an integral part of the Democratic Party. They correctly assert that the Democratic Party is fighting for everyone and that everyone includes the Palestinians. Anyone who can write this speech should know that it is of the utmost importance to stay on script.
By not airing the speech the DNC is leaving Israel’s genocide in the Gaza strip to be a wedge issue for bad actors. It falls to the rest of us to assert that this is not the case. There is no other secret speech that needs to be said. Free Palestine and Vote Blue No Matter Who are not statements that are at odds in the general election.
Yes, the speech as given is fine (again, not super helpful but not awful) but the risk is the speaker deviates from a speech submitted for DNC approval etc.
Given the protestors outside have signs accusing Democrats of funding genocide it just seems like an unnecessary risk.
As for giving a wedge issue for bad actors, that’ll happen regardless of whether one speaker says nice things at the DNC.
In sum, negligible upside with a significant risk this is not a move I, or any rational campaign staffer, would make.
There is no serious risk of a deviation in giving the speech. This is isn’t a speech by protesters holding ‘Killer Kamala’ signs. This is the speech from the Uncommitted Movement. The speaker is a Democrat state representative herself. The Uncommitted Movement made their point in the Democratic Party’s primary election and now are supporting the Democratic ticket in the general election.
An endorsement by a major pro-Palestinian movement in the US would be a huge upside to Kamala Harris’ campaign. Again, not just any speaker saying nice things. A Palestinian woman who is a Democrat and state representative. Who, on behalf of a large pro-Palestinian movement, says things that would turn this issue around for the Democrats.
The real downside by not airing the speech is giving more ammo to bad actors and psyops on social media platforms. Who try to make supporting Palestinians and Democrats mutually exclusive. That kind of misinformation dominating the discourse and depressing voter turnout would negatively impact the Democratic ticket.
The rational analysis is in favor of letting this speech air. I am not privy to the DNC’s thought process. What could be happening is self-sabotage based on unfounded fear. Fear that is motivated by a misunderstanding of who the Uncommitted Movement is. Anyone protesting to prevent Kamala from winning the general election is either a bad actor or part of a psyop, not the Uncommitted Movement.
This is is a missed opportunity for the Democrats. However, it need not be a missed opportunity for us. Whenever someone tries to hit Kamala with this topic as a wedge issue, show them this speech. The Uncommitted Movement is with Kamala Harris.
As far as I can tell, the uncommitted movement hasn’t made any official statements supporting Harris or anything to that effect on their website.
So the DNC has to trust this group’s policy is going to be announced by this speaker at the DNC with zero mechanisms to make sure things go as planned.
Outside of a few goofs, most voters understand the Dems will be better for Palestine than trump. Even if the uncommitted movement made a serious pledge, a lot of the genocide Joe crowd would just call them party hacks or whatever. At the same time, frankly, among the people most likely to actually vote (those 65+) support is incredibly favourable to Israel, even during this conflict.
Again, negligible possible gains, huge risk, avoiding this is a no brainer.
(Unsure how old you are but you might remember the kerfuffle over Bernie in 2016 or the ridicule after Eastwood’s bizzare empty chair speech. A successful convention is one that avoids those embarrassing moments at all costs.)
I don’t imagine we’re going to agree on this but I appreciate your input.
The Uncommitted Movement do not need to indirectly communicate with the DNC via their website. They requested to speak at the DNC and eventually got a no. If the DNC wanted additional assurances they could have just asked. The DNC didn’t even want to look at the speech. They analyzed fewer facts than we are now.
The same mechanisms as anybody the DNC works with. Again, the speaker is a Democrat. Specifically a Democrat state representative in Georgia. The DNC should be able to trust this person.
Those goofs are people whose votes the Democrats will need to win the election in November. This speech was an easy way to win them over.
Which the Uncommitted Movement did. They released the speech to Mother Jones. We need to tell people that the Uncommited Movement has done this.
The Democrats need high voter turnout to win. Swing state elections this year could be determined by younger, unlikely voters. Many younger, unlikely voters care about Palestine. So it is critical they know the Democratic Party’s ticket is in the interest of Palestine.
Those were 8 and 12 years ago respectively. So recent. The kerfuffle you are referring to is a major source of grievance for the kind of people who would otherwise support the current Democratic Party’s ticket.
Your argument misses that these examples are in fact the opposite problems. The DNC went out of their way to put down Bernie’s campaign. Where as the RNC were completely blindsided by Clint Eastwood’s improv performance. The RNC couldn’t be bothered to get Clint Eastwood to commit to an agreed on speech.
The DNC again went out of their way to block a speech that could have benefited them and is yet another unforced error from Democrats. Rather than allowing the DNC mistake cost the Democrats another election we should inform people what an actual pro-Palestinian movement thinks.
It is a no brainer, but not in the way your argument is describing it. No matter how many times your argument minimizes the benefits of and invents risks for this speech for Democrats doesn’t make it true. The DNC’s analysis is a moot point anyway. We can see that this speech is a useful tool against people wrongly using the topic as a wedge issue. We should use the speech.
Your argument’s analysis isn’t based on the available facts. Your argument invents a ‘reasonable’ DNC response when we are in the dark about the actual reasoning. Why imagine a world where the DNC did the right thing when we can simply do the right thing for them. Show people the speech.
It really seems like you are asserting things without regard for evidence or observable reality. You can’t just say “there’s no risk of deviating from the speech.” That’s a very bold assertion made entirely without evidence!
Yes, they kind of do. That’s the thing. It is very strange to have a “movement” say they are going to make a significant strategic decision but only if they are able to do it live and on primetime. That works for WWE and reality television but not politics. And it is a strategic switch that seems to only exist in this one copy of a speech, not on the website or anything where you would expect to see a significant policy switch.
Yes, except those speakers have all been part of groups that are enthusiastically and vocally for Harris.
Again, you have this group that have been pretty anti-establishment then promising they are going to radically shift gears and are now going to be vocal for Harris? Seems off.
You should look at the swing state data! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html - For the “blue wall” https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html - For the interesting possible swings (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.)
In both, you can see that Harris leads or is close with 65+ (a group that is twice the size of the younger voters and votes reliably.)
Nate Silver also broke down the math pretty well in an aptly titled post “Your friends are not a representative sample of public opinion”
(https://www.natesilver.net/p/your-friends-are-not-a-representative)
You might also look at how the issue fits in with the broader public, where even a third of Democrats oppose a ceasefire if Hamas does not release the hostages (the ones they haven’t murdered yet): https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/49384-majorities-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza
Like I said, huge risk with marginal upside. Even if the odds are against it, the outcome could be disastrous. Think about Russian Roulette with a 1/100 chance, sure the odds are in your favour but would you play that game for a nickel?
No, it’s not. Again, she is an elected Democrat. If the DNC can’t trust their own elected officials then they can’t trust anyone. Your argument is trying to make it sound like a random protester would be giving the speech.
Their website is for general information and donations. Not for sending smoke signals to the DNC. They can communicate over the phone or by email. The Uncommitted Movement do not have to signal anything publicly on their donation page for the DNC to take them seriously.
The Uncommited part in Uncommitted Movement referrers to the uncommitted option on certain state’s primary ballots for the Democratic Party. The intention of the movement was always to contest Biden during the primary election and not the general election. There is no switching gears, that was always the plan.
All of the above is a moot point anyway. The DNC is over. They did not allow the speech to be given by anyone.
Those likely voters are voting. It will come down to unlikely voters. This the margin of victory in 2020.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Many of the races in battle ground states came down to less than a million votes. .5% of 340 million people is 1.7 million people. In other words, enough people to make the Democrats lose critical swing states.
Rather than misleading people about reality and blowing off voters in an election where every vote counts, consider telling them the truth instead. The Uncommitted Movement supports Kamala Harris. The speech is evidence of that. Arguments trying to make this a wedge issue against the Democrats are demonstrably false. The Democratic Party’s ticket is good for the Palestinian people, don’t let any misinformation about that go unchallenged.
I’m talking about arguments like this one in this comment section:
Trump is going to let all of the Palestinians be killed. Arguments in support of the Palestinian people should be trying to energize people to vote for Kamala and to defeat Trump this November. However the rhetoric in the above argument is designed to de-energize voters. We can argue against that rhetoric with facts like this speech.
It just seems wild to put your entire argument as “there is no way a state member of Congress who has been in office for all of 20 months would go off script in support of a cause which she feels is super important.” Especially to heartily endorse Kamala, a position which the uncommitted movement has (as far as I can tell) kept fairly quiet, not even bothering to publish on their website. (Yes, we have this super important message about the election but it’s not on us to present that message anywhere if we don’t get our way with a speaker!"
Even if I think the odds are the script would go fine, it’s a silly risk and would be an insane unforced error.
Wanting something to be true is not the same as it being true.