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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they’re weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It’s one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.

    Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it’s both.





  • Why the fuck do we always aim for “slightly better than the Republicans”?

    Two party voting. In order to win, you have to get voters that are as close to your opponent as possible, without your base staying home in protest. Having a more objectionable opponent just means you can ignore your own base even more, because they’re not going to stay home when that means the other asshole might win.