jeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 8 months agoShould we care about RFK Jr. and his new running mate?www.vox.comexternal-linkmessage-square10fedilinkarrow-up110arrow-down119
arrow-up1-9arrow-down1external-linkShould we care about RFK Jr. and his new running mate?www.vox.comjeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 8 months agomessage-square10fedilink
minus-squarejordanlund@lemmy.worldMlinkfedilinkarrow-up3·edit-28 months agoYES! Because swing state polling shows Biden either tied or slightly losing to Trump when it’s just them, head to head. But the same polling shows Biden losing by a wider margin if you include Kennedy, West, and Stein. 3rd party votes will only help Trump. Example: Michigan: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ Biden/Trump - 50/50 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 41/43/5/1/1 Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ Biden/Trump - 46/46 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 38/40/16/4 Wisconsin: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ Biden/Trump - 48/52 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 40/43/6/1/1 Arizona: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ Biden/Trump - 42/46 Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 33/37/18/2
YES! Because swing state polling shows Biden either tied or slightly losing to Trump when it’s just them, head to head.
But the same polling shows Biden losing by a wider margin if you include Kennedy, West, and Stein.
3rd party votes will only help Trump.
Example:
Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Biden/Trump - 50/50
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 41/43/5/1/1
Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Biden/Trump - 46/46
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 38/40/16/4
Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Biden/Trump - 48/52
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/Stein/West - 40/43/6/1/1
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden/Trump - 42/46
Biden/Trump/Kennedy/West - 33/37/18/2
Exactly! Glad someone gets it