Safety for Democrats is leading in national polling by +10. Kamala isn’t +5. She needs +5 to be break even due to structural issues like the electoral college and voter suppression. Her trajectory prior to, and through the convention supported her getting into the safety range. I think that because of what we’ve seen from the supreme court, this needs to be a blow out. We know republicans will be doing everything they can to steal/ cause chaos and confusion around results/ fail to certify etc. If it isn’t violently clear from a major victory, this thing goes to Trump.
Its delusional to think that Kamala is on track for that kind of major victory, but as with Biden’s performance and likelyhood of winning, self-delusion around their favorite teams ability to actually win seems to be Lemmy’s kink.
538, which goes by electoral votes, has here winning 55 times out of 100. It’s not an overwhelming win for sure and still not much better than a coin toss…but also not “on pace to lose the election.”
538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don’t get it, but if Kamala doesn’t “win by a landslide”, which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.
They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.
I have my concerns about the election for sure. But you claimed she is on pace for losing, the numbers suggest otherwise. Your hand wringing is not a good replacement for actual analysis.
I am 100 not saying the polls are wrong. However 538 completely changed when Nate Silver left. They are a shell of their former self and their models are a joke. No one should be taking them seriously. The weights and polls 538 was including in it’s aggregate has Biden to win when he was polling at 37%.
If you want good polllingnirnmodelinf silver bullets, nates personal project is far superior.
I am 💯 a polls nerd and check my posts for some analysis I’ve done.
Go back to the data on 2020. Biden under performed his polling across the board. He was leading and did win, but not nearly the the margins he should have.
Safety for Democrats is leading in national polling by +10. Kamala isn’t +5. She needs +5 to be break even due to structural issues like the electoral college and voter suppression. Her trajectory prior to, and through the convention supported her getting into the safety range. I think that because of what we’ve seen from the supreme court, this needs to be a blow out. We know republicans will be doing everything they can to steal/ cause chaos and confusion around results/ fail to certify etc. If it isn’t violently clear from a major victory, this thing goes to Trump.
Its delusional to think that Kamala is on track for that kind of major victory, but as with Biden’s performance and likelyhood of winning, self-delusion around their favorite teams ability to actually win seems to be Lemmy’s kink.
538, which goes by electoral votes, has here winning 55 times out of 100. It’s not an overwhelming win for sure and still not much better than a coin toss…but also not “on pace to lose the election.”
538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don’t get it, but if Kamala doesn’t “win by a landslide”, which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.
They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.
Polls were historically accurate in 2022. To say they are meaningless makes no sense.
I have my concerns about the election for sure. But you claimed she is on pace for losing, the numbers suggest otherwise. Your hand wringing is not a good replacement for actual analysis.
I am 100 not saying the polls are wrong. However 538 completely changed when Nate Silver left. They are a shell of their former self and their models are a joke. No one should be taking them seriously. The weights and polls 538 was including in it’s aggregate has Biden to win when he was polling at 37%.
If you want good polllingnirnmodelinf silver bullets, nates personal project is far superior.
I am 💯 a polls nerd and check my posts for some analysis I’ve done.
Go back to the data on 2020. Biden under performed his polling across the board. He was leading and did win, but not nearly the the margins he should have.
Ah, goalpost-moving. I should have known.
Show me how I changed the standard?