The supreme Court says you can just kill them bro
Put the bloated military budget to good use for once.
For once? Are you not familiar with the whole situation in Ukraine?
we’re barely using our military there, as a percentage
I agree we should just straight up bomb the fuck out of Russia and assassinate Putin.
Counter-point, we should scale our involvement in the whole thing waaaay back and spend that money on things like infrastructure, healthcare, and education.
Oh man, if only biden knew someone in a position of power that had a responsibility to not let that occur. Oh well. So sick of democrats throwing up their hands and tripping over their dicks. We’re going to shrug our way into global fascism.
If I were him, I’d make quiet preparations. Probably he has, because he’s had four years to do so. We know military leaders have discussed the issue, right? Which means POTUS has, too. But what actions taken, that we don’t know.
We need a landslide for Kamala - Enough to scare at least a few republican SC members out of giving the win to the GoP out of fear of lynching when a bunch of states inevitably refuse to certify results
Then we need to be prepared for an actual attack on the government and pissed off Trumpers killing citizens
Can’t assume anything but worst case and prepare for it as the GoP is in full Hitler’s Nazi Party mode
We need a landslide for Kamala
Agreed. Kamala had the start of that during/ before the campaign. Like actually great performance. Since/ during the campaign, she’s shifted to the right, focusing mostly on how “good she is for business” and touting Republican endorsements. She refused to engage with the uncommitted movement. Before the convention, her trajectory had her heading into the 50-55% zone by election day. That stalled out with her rightwing shift. She’s on track to lose this election.
How do you say she’s in track to lose. All the data I’ve seen makes me optimistic.
Safety for Democrats is leading in national polling by +10. Kamala isn’t +5. She needs +5 to be break even due to structural issues like the electoral college and voter suppression. Her trajectory prior to, and through the convention supported her getting into the safety range. I think that because of what we’ve seen from the supreme court, this needs to be a blow out. We know republicans will be doing everything they can to steal/ cause chaos and confusion around results/ fail to certify etc. If it isn’t violently clear from a major victory, this thing goes to Trump.
Its delusional to think that Kamala is on track for that kind of major victory, but as with Biden’s performance and likelyhood of winning, self-delusion around their favorite teams ability to actually win seems to be Lemmy’s kink.
Ah, goalpost-moving. I should have known.
Show me how I changed the standard?
538, which goes by electoral votes, has here winning 55 times out of 100. It’s not an overwhelming win for sure and still not much better than a coin toss…but also not “on pace to lose the election.”
538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don’t get it, but if Kamala doesn’t “win by a landslide”, which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.
They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.
Polls were historically accurate in 2022. To say they are meaningless makes no sense.
I have my concerns about the election for sure. But you claimed she is on pace for losing, the numbers suggest otherwise. Your hand wringing is not a good replacement for actual analysis.
I am 100 not saying the polls are wrong. However 538 completely changed when Nate Silver left. They are a shell of their former self and their models are a joke. No one should be taking them seriously. The weights and polls 538 was including in it’s aggregate has Biden to win when he was polling at 37%.
If you want good polllingnirnmodelinf silver bullets, nates personal project is far superior.
I am 💯 a polls nerd and check my posts for some analysis I’ve done.
Go back to the data on 2020. Biden under performed his polling across the board. He was leading and did win, but not nearly the the margins he should have.
