SSN numbers are good for 999,999,999 people alive or dead. At some point the US will hit that, right? Do we start reusing numbers? Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

  • bokherif@lemmy.world
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    1 month ago

    Considering there are around 330M citizens right now, I think they ran out already and they’re probably recycling them.

    • BigDanishGuy@sh.itjust.works
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      1 month ago

      The first SSNs were issued in 1936 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_number

      According to the death master file entry in wiki 111x10^6 SSNs died between 1962 and 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Master_File

      That’s 1.982 x 10^6 x deaths x year^-1. Assume that number to be a constant during the period 1936-2024

      1.982 x 10^6 x deaths x year^-1 x (2024-1936) x year = 174.4 x 10^6 deaths

      According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States there’s 335.9 x 10^6 residents, but I can’t tell if they are citizens with SSNs, but I’m going to assume that for now.

      So (335.9 + 174.4) x 10^6 is 510.3 x 10^6 spent SSNs.

      According to the same demographics wiki article the birth rate is 11 births per 1000 population. Death rate is 10.4 deaths per 1000 population. Because I’m just doing back of the envelope estimation for fun, while trying to manage my hangover in the early afternoon, I’m not going to create an exponential function to describe population growth. Instead I’m going to only consider future the US population a constant and not consider the 200 x 10^3 annual net growth (it only affects the next year’s growth by 120 anyway)

      With all of that BS out of the way, at the present birthrate the US requires 3.695 x 10^6 new SSNs annually. The total amount SSNs in the current scheme is (10^9) - 1. I’m going to be leaving out the -1. 10^9 total SSNs - 510.3x^6 spent SSNs leaves 489.7 x 10^6 SSNs available. 489.7/3.695 is 132.5.

      So in conclusion, assuming a constant population, the US can go for another 132.5 years with the present scheme without having to reuse any SSN.

      • bokherif@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        How about dead SSNs between ‘36 and ‘62? Great work on the calculation but all I’m saying is, if the government ran out of numbers and recycled them already, nobody would know about it. The whole situation is ridiculous if you ask me and there’s no database of SSNs you can compare it to. Weirdly enough, official government departments straight up lie about things and easily get away with it heh.

      • paddirn@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        SSN’s are also given out to immigrants as well though, so that’s a whole other population of people outside of just natural born citizens to account for. The US awards around one million green cards annually, though I don’t know what the historical numbers are.

        • BigDanishGuy@sh.itjust.works
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          1 month ago

          SSN’s are also given out to immigrants as well though

          Oh snap! Thanks for bringing that up. Adding another million each year, and assuming a constant green card rate since before WW2(!), adds another 88 million spent SSNs. With an additional million green cards annually, that makes the calculation (1000-510.3-88)x10^6 SSNs /4.695 x 10^6 SSNs/year = 85.6 years.

          So the US has until about the end of the century to figure it out.

    • Th4tGuyII@fedia.io
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      1 month ago

      You could be right about them recycling numbers already, but 330 million < 999 million, so that wouldn’t be why

      • bokherif@lemmy.world
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        1 month ago

        Well, if only one generation passed away, that already puts us at 660M lol. Then there’s immigration, temporary issued SSNs based on work visas (huge numbers here btw) and so on.