• 6 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 12th, 2023

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  • Let’s add to the list, almost four years of operatives infiltrating their way into the election certification process. Not to get too tinfoil hatty, but the addiction denial strategy almost worked last time, and while the same team that orchestrated it no longer occupied the White house, state officials open to the scheme likely won’t make the same mistakes this time.

    It’s a different election now with Harris taking the Dem nomination, but 2020 was decided by about 40k votes spread across a few key states. The same polarization that makes polling almost impossible to do accurately also means people’s opinions are equally hard to change. Don’t try. Instead, focus your efforts on mobilizing voters to turn out. Organize and make a plan to get yourself to the polls and to bring a friend. Check vote.gov and make sure you’re still registered and make sure the reasonable people in your life have too! Uncle ivermectin isn’t changing his mind about the trans panic, but there’s going to be a significant portion of the population that just doesn’t have time to vote between working the jobs to stay afloat. Get them a mail in ballot!

    I’ve checked my registration about 25 times this month after learning I had mysteriously dropped from the rolls in a swing state. Don’t let some jackass take your opportunity to vote away. It may be our last change to finally stop hearing about every single stupid thing that comes out of the mouths of the worst people in government. Winning is the only way to fix what’s broken in our system.





  • Obligatory crooked timber post:

    https://crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/liberals-against-progressives/#comment-729288

    “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protectes but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”

    It’s pretty nakedly just a cult of personality with no other policy platforms that I recognize. For 50 years quality of life for Americans had meaningfully stagnated or declined. It’s brutal paying so much for groceries and gasoline when rent has been commodified. Answering that with mythical “I alone can fix it” is a very attractive and easily understood pitch. A lecture about the nuances of globalization and market efficiency is not. As important as bathroom access and preferred pronouns are, they too are not a sufficient political answer for a minimum wage that hasn’t matched productivity for decades.

    It’s a leadership issue but any sane person would never subject themselves or their families to running for office in a news environment like America’s. That leaves us with a government composed primarily by clinical narcissists and grifters.

    Feels bad.


  • CIS had an interesting chat with John Mearscheimer about Israel that’s unsurprising, but worth the listen. The host commented with a running joke that, "having been strongly supportive of Netanyahu after October 7, Joe Biden is seriously invested in the two-state solution—Michigan and Pennsylvania (@1:17:38)

    Tough sell. Sure it’s obvious who will make the situation measurably worse in nearly every way, but it’s really hard to motivate and mobilize a voting block on harm reduction, when the incumbent elicits strongly emotional revulsion right now.

    Recency bias, negativity bias, etc. are so hard to overcome. It’s like trying to logic your way out of an argument someone has emotion’d themselves into. You may know the answer conceptually, but actually feeling ok about it enough to act isn’t a logic proposition. It’s one of the most emotionally charged decisions we make.

    Not a demographic I’d be counting on showing up in large numbers if I we’re a campaign strategist. Sadly, Trump is retaining well over 90% of his voting coalition from 2020, whereas Biden is only retaining a fraction of his (very diverse) block. Since the election will come down to a very small number of votes, he’s going to need all of his 2020 coalition to show up. 4 years of reality make that a hard bargain for Arab Americans and Republicans who held their noses after Jan 6 and voted blue though. Ugh.

    Link to the video: https://youtu.be/kAfIYtpcBxo

    Piped bot, assemble!













  • You’ve received several responses but the meaningful “come to Jesus” story actually relates to Saul (Paul, who is responsible for much of Christianity) on the road to Damascus.

    Paul was persecuting primitive Christians and while he was traveling to Damascus to arrest them, he was temporarily blinded by divine intervention that led to his conversion and stopped him from continuing to persecute people. The dramatic intervention disabused him of the errant beliefs that caused him to injure people, in other words.

    See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_of_Paul_the_Apostle

    That’s what the comparison is talking about. It’s a metaphor that relates to needing a dramatic and often violent wakeup call to snap someone out of doing something wrong. From a Christian perspective you can see how Paul being shaken up enough to change his name, religion, profession, etc was a real “come to Jesus” moment.

    That’s the key context I think you’re asking about. It’s not really about converting to Christianity. It’s more about having a BIG wakeup call that you’re on the wrong path (literally in Paul’s case) and you need to change your ways because you’re hurting people (or you’ll stay blinded if you’re Paul I guess).

    Hope that helps!




  • This is not accurate. It’s a provacative narrative, but the heyday for private military contractors passed a decade ago. Blackwater was such a disaster for the military, they relegated 99% of contractor jobs to BDOC/BOSI (tower guards etc) roles ages ago.

    This move is almost certainly related to transitions from limited counterterrorism structures to great power conflict Army force design. The military has missed it’s recruitment goals by massive numbers in the past couple years, and filling obsolete positions is actually impacting Forces Command from meeting their manning strength mandates.

    I fully expect to see more of these changes announced over the next 3-5 years as military procurement and restructuring guidelines catch up with implementation timelines. But this is categorically not evidence of a large scale plan to turn active soldiers into PMC personnel (to work around rules of engagement restrictions). There’s manpower shortages as it is, and there’s no institutional incentive to make those shortages more drastic than they already are.