China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.
The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.
Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.
Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”
Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.
You underestimate puberty
It’s not a matter of puberty; it’s a matter of immigration. Which of those countries is going to be willing to accept a mass influx of minorities from the other?
I thought you said it was racism
What, you doubt Russian or Chinese immigration policy could be racist? You think Russia would have absolutely no problem with the idea accepting a whole bunch of Han Chinese men, or that China would have absolutely no problem with the idea of accepting a whole bunch of white Russian women?
Russia is literally offering citizenship in exchange for military service.
China is just beginning to ramp up policy to attempt to address their own population issues.
I absolutely think that all countries are racist. I think it always informs immigration policy.
SPECIFICALLY w/ Russia and China, I think that the mutually beneficial agreement regarding the sustainability of their economies supercedes issues with racism. At least w/ Russia, this is literally evidenced by their immigration policies. I actually don’t know what China’s immigration policies are w.r.t Russians, but I expect they’re roughly aligned with other nations, and they’re not singled out unfavourably.